BoE Cuts Rates, GBP Headed Above 1.55?
January 8, 2009
As you may now, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 50bp to 1.50 percent, an all time record low for the 300 year old central bank
What I found most interesting about the BoE Monetary Policy Statement is the credit that they are giving to the weak sterling.
“But the substantial depreciation in sterling over recent months may help to moderate the impact on UK net exports of the slowdown in global growth.”
This is one of the arguments that I gave in my 2009 British Pound Outlook about why we expect the UK to be one of the first countries to recovery from the global economic downturn.
As for further rate cuts from the central bank, more is likely given the pessimistic tone of the BoE statement. Inflation is also expected to ease sharply.
However the GBP/USD has broken above the 50-day SMA and entered our buy zone as the rate cut confirms the aggressiveness of the central bank. As long as the currency pair remains above 1.4245 on a closing basis, we could see a move to 1.5585.
source: eSignal
Posted in 2009 british pound forecast, Bank of England, British Pound, Forex Technicals, forex blog, forex signals
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January 8th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Hi Kathy,
A Happy New Year to you.
I am surprised by your bullish outlook for GBP and our economy. The way I see it, sitting in the UK, our economy is entering into a depression. The three pillars of our economy are collapsing:
~Property Speculation.
~The City.
~Retailing.
Living off these three has been State spending.
I now expect unemployment to rocket and tax revenues to collapse. Such will be the debt risen by the State that future tax rises will cripple any potential recovery.
I think that the UK plc is heading into an L shaped depression. Some are calling it to be a “soft” or “shallow” depression, only time will tell.
As a Brit I wish this was view was totally wrong but sadly the current events are showing a bleak future trend.
I remain short GBP vs. USD.
January 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Good comments. As i indicated, I need to see the GBP/USD CLOSE in the buy zone for the uptrend to be confirmed
January 9th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
Hi, Kathy,
What is time frame of candle chart and reference data of your bolling band on GBPUSD pair in this article? I long GBPUSD today. many thanks for sharing your insights always.
January 9th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I don’t think this is the true time to take a long GBP/USD position
January 9th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
It was on a daily chart. GBP/USD did not close in the buy zone, so the uptrend is not valid for the time being
January 11th, 2009 at 3:23 am
GBP/USD closed above 50-day MA. It may be the beginning of a wave up. I would be cautious about GBP shorting.
January 11th, 2009 at 8:47 am
Kathy,
Thanks. GBP should go down a little bit and then up.