Over the past 3 weeks, central banks around the world have made a number of comments that have affected rate hike expectations. On Jan 27th, I showed where rate hike expectations were at the time and since then a number of interesting changes have occurred.
First, the market is now pricing in a 25bp rate [...]

Posted in 2009 british pound forecast, 2010 dollar forecast, Australian Dollar, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, ECB, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, eur/usd 2 Comments »

How close is the Federal Reserve to easing monetary policy in November? Pretty close if we look at the views of different FOMC members. However the skepticism of some officials could compromise the overall size of the asset purchase program.
Read on to find out where FOMC voters stand:
Voting Members of the FOMC
Believe More QE [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, 2010 eurusd forecast, FOMC, Federal Reserve, bernanke support for dollar, fed liquidity dollar, forex blog 1 Comment »

Saying the U.S. dollar is falling out of bed would almost be an understatement given the recent price action in the greenback. Over the past three months, the dollar lost more than 10 percent of its value against the euro, Swiss Franc and Australian dollar. Since July, every one of the G10 currencies [...]

Posted in 2009 us dollar forecast, 2010 dollar forecast, 2010 eurusd forecast, US Treasuries, dollar rally 2 Comments »

The biggest event in the forex market this week will be tomorrow’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. On FX360.com, I published an extensive article talking about what the Fed may or may not do (FOMC Preview: The Key Language Changes to Look for)
Here are the possible scenarios for the U.S. dollar:
A) Fed uses [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Fed rate hike, dollar rally, forex blog 1 Comment »

Trading the Fed meeting is always difficult because in addition to a decision on rates, the tone of the FOMC statement also affects how the dollar trades. Rather than immediately jumping into the market after the announcement, I have found that in 11 out of the last 14 times that the Federal Reserve has [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, Federal Reserve, dollar rally, forex blog, quantitative easing 2 Comments »