Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Australian Dollar, ECB, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, ecb rate hike, forex blog 1 Comment »

Two competing factors has made assessing the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Australian economy and the Australian dollar difficult. First, Japanese investors hold approximately $60 billion in Australian assets and own an additional $15 billion worth of Australian Uridashi bonds, which are denominated in Australian dollars but sold directly to Japanese investors. [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, aud/usd, japan quake yen 1 Comment »

Take a look at the Australian dollar chart below. Do you see the head and shoulders / triple top formation that I see? =)
The Australian employment numbers didnt make anyone happy. A deeper pullback is likely but I don’t except the AUD/USD to trade much lower than 99 cents. Remember the hawkish [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Forex Technicals, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, forex blog 6 Comments »

Approximately 2.5 weeks ago, I posted a chart showing how a turn is in the making in AUD/NZD. At the time,the currency pair was trading at 1.3050. It dipped afterwards but has finally achieved the turn that I was looking for - which is a move to the opposite second standard deviation Bollinger [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast No Comments »

The Australian dollar is on a tear this morning thanks to the upbeat tone of the Reserve Bank and their nonchalant comments about the floods. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar has a very strong correlation with commodity prices. However contrary to popular beliefs, the Aussie’s correlation with gold prices have not been [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, aud/usd, forex blog, gold dollar rally 1 Comment »