The Reserve Bank of Australia is gearing up to cut interest rates this evening. The market is currently pricing in 32bp of tightening which means that investors expect the central bank to reduce rates by a minimum of 25bp. 50bp is a possibility but given some signs of improvement in Australia’s economy (jobs [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast No Comments »

RBA meeting coming up. Here’s a table on how the Australian economy performed since the last monetary policy meeting in Feb. As you can see, there has been as much improvement as disappointment but the pullback in manufacturing and service sector activity is particularly worrisome. Market is pricing in 50bp of [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, reserve bank of australia intervention 2 Comments »

The New Year has begun and it is important to see what the market is pricing in for central banks this year. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations change often but as of last week, most central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in the coming year but one [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, BoE rate cut, ECB, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, forex blog, reserve bank of new zealand 7 Comments »

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia last night talking about the Australian dollar, China and Japanese Yen with Karen Cho

Posted in Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, japanese retail positioning No Comments »

Even though ECB President Trichet was quite clear last week in signaling that rate hikes are not over, based upon interest rate futures, investors are actually pricing in NO RATE HIKES for the rest of the year and into the first half of 2012.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB insisted that [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 dollar forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia 2 Comments »