The Reserve Bank of Australia made it very clear last night that they do not plan to raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Despite the rise in commodity prices, the RBA expressed little concern about inflation. As a result, the AUD/USD extended its losses as investors realized that unlike the ECB and [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd, reserve bank of australia intervention No Comments »

The last 3 times the RBA made a monetary policy announcement, a small to large reversal was triggered in the Australian dollar. RBA rate decisions can frequently mark a top or bottom in a currency - this does not happen 100 percent of the time, but given the number of considerations that go into [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast 2 Comments »

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a monetary policy announcement this evening and even though interest rates are not expected to be changed, the tone of the statement could seal the fate of the Aussie by determining whether it makes a run for 1.05 or falls back towards parity. The key with the RBA [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd 1 Comment »

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Australian Dollar, ECB, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, ecb rate hike, forex blog 1 Comment »

Two competing factors has made assessing the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the Australian economy and the Australian dollar difficult. First, Japanese investors hold approximately $60 billion in Australian assets and own an additional $15 billion worth of Australian Uridashi bonds, which are denominated in Australian dollars but sold directly to Japanese investors. [...]

Posted in Australian Dollar, aud/usd, japan quake yen 1 Comment »