I have written my own piece on How Oil Prices Impact the U.S. Dollar but Jens Nordvig of Nomura has an equally thorough take that is worth reading:
What does the spike in oil prices mean for the dollar?
Recent memories suggest that higher oil prices are bad news for the dollar. First, we have been [...]

Posted in 2011 dollar forecast, Federal Reserve, Oil, dollar rally, forex blog, oil dollar, oil record high 2 Comments »

Saying the U.S. dollar is falling out of bed would almost be an understatement given the recent price action in the greenback. Over the past three months, the dollar lost more than 10 percent of its value against the euro, Swiss Franc and Australian dollar. Since July, every one of the G10 currencies [...]

Posted in 2009 us dollar forecast, 2010 dollar forecast, 2010 eurusd forecast, US Treasuries, dollar rally 2 Comments »

The biggest event in the forex market this week will be tomorrow’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. On FX360.com, I published an extensive article talking about what the Fed may or may not do (FOMC Preview: The Key Language Changes to Look for)
Here are the possible scenarios for the U.S. dollar:
A) Fed uses [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Fed rate hike, dollar rally, forex blog 1 Comment »

Trading the Fed meeting is always difficult because in addition to a decision on rates, the tone of the FOMC statement also affects how the dollar trades. Rather than immediately jumping into the market after the announcement, I have found that in 11 out of the last 14 times that the Federal Reserve has [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, Federal Reserve, dollar rally, forex blog, quantitative easing 2 Comments »

I was on Fox Business yesterday talking about my outlook for oil and the U.S. dollar:
Watch the latest business video at video.foxbusiness.com

Posted in Fox Businesss, dollar rally, forex blog 2 Comments »