The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic data. An improvement in consumer confidence has failed to help the dollar while the weaker news has pretty much been baked into the markets.
Christmas and New Years week is a time when traders are more focused on seeing family than making [...]

Posted in Crude Oil Prices, Forex News, Oil, US Dollar, US Economy, consumer confidence, consumer spending, dollar earnings, dollar recession, forex blog, gas prices, oil dollar, weak dollar earnings 5 Comments »

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75bp to a range of 0 to 0.25 percent, the lowest level that this generation has ever seen.
In our FOMC preview, we talked about how the Fed may consider adopting a BoJ style rate cut that takes interest rates somewhere between 0.25 and 0 percent. [...]

Posted in Bernanke, FOMC, FOMC Minutes, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve, Forex News, Interest rates, US Economy, dollar recession, dollar record low, eur/usd, forex blog, usd/jpy 8 Comments »

The US dollar is tanking as jobless claims rise by the largest amount since November 1982, 26 years ago. As I have suspected, it is the 1980s all over again.
This confirms that the 533k drop in non-farm payrolls last month will not be the bottom in the labor market. When claims first [...]

Posted in EURJPY, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve, Forex News, Japanese Yen, US Dollar, US Economy, US Treasuries, beige book dollar, dollar recession, eur/usd, euro, forex blog, jobs, non-farm payrolls, oil dollar, recession, usd/jpy, zero interest rates 1 Comment »

Although currency and stock traders can’t figure out whether this is a bottom or a pause before more losses, the sentiment in the bond market is very negative.
For the first time since the US Treasury started selling 4 week T-bills in 2001, the yield hit zero. In other words, bond market investors [...]

Posted in Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve, Forex News, Forex Technicals, dollar recession, forex blog 2 Comments »

There has been 3 recessions in the past 30 years. In each of those recessions, the dollar weakened in the first six months of the recession, then gained strength in the next six. Twelve months into the current recession, we see this pattern in the dollar repeated once again.
The more important question however is whether [...]

Posted in Forex News, Forex Technicals, US Dollar, dollar rally, dollar recession, forex blog, oil dollar, recession 7 Comments »