The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have monetary policy meetings scheduled this week and some investors expect these central banks to change monetary policy. Here’s what the market is pricing in according to interest rate futures. You can compare them with the Central Bank expectations back in September. [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 dollar forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Bank of England, ECB, FOMC, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Reserve Bank of Australia, aud/usd, ecb rate cut, ecb rate hike No Comments »

The big focus tomorrow is on ECB President Trichet’s press conference. The European Central Bank is not expected to raise interest rates, but Trichet IS expected to pave the for a rate hike in July. Over the past few years, the words “Strong Vigilance” have been synonymous with “interest rates will be increased next [...]

Posted in 2011 euro forecast, ECB, ecb rate hike, eur/usd No Comments »

- Rates currently at 1.00%
- 25bp rate hike completely priced in for Thurs
- 50bp priced in by June
- 100bp priced in by end of year
The most anticipated event risk this week is the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday and the euro has rallied strongly ahead of the announcement. For the first time in 2 [...]

Posted in ECB, ecb rate hike, eur/usd 4 Comments »

Sorry for the radio silence - have been on vacation then corporate craziness
The euro staged a remarkable rally today after dipping as low as 1.4060 following the U.S. non-farm payrolls release. The resilience of the single currency is incredibly impressive considering that Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt rating and Fitch warned [...]

Posted in 2010 eurusd forecast, 2010 eurusd forecasts, 2011 euro forecast, ECB, ecb rate hike No Comments »

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Australian Dollar, ECB, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, ecb rate hike, forex blog 1 Comment »