Why has the rally in the EUR been so lackluster? Because there are a still 4 3 more hurdles to overcome before we can put the Greek debt crisis behind us.
The Greeks have jumped over 2 hoops on their own with one more expected to be cleared once the Greek implementation vote is completed [...]

Posted in eur/usd, euro, euro oil, euro rate hike, euro sovereign debt crisis 2 Comments »

Here’s an awesome graphic of which countries are most exposed to Greek debt. If Greece defaults, France and Germany will suffer the most

Posted in eur/usd, euro, greece exposure No Comments »

The big focus tomorrow is on ECB President Trichet’s press conference. The European Central Bank is not expected to raise interest rates, but Trichet IS expected to pave the for a rate hike in July. Over the past few years, the words “Strong Vigilance” have been synonymous with “interest rates will be increased next [...]

Posted in 2011 euro forecast, ECB, ecb rate hike, eur/usd No Comments »

- Rates currently at 1.00%
- 25bp rate hike completely priced in for Thurs
- 50bp priced in by June
- 100bp priced in by end of year
The most anticipated event risk this week is the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday and the euro has rallied strongly ahead of the announcement. For the first time in 2 [...]

Posted in ECB, ecb rate hike, eur/usd 4 Comments »

The following chart shows how the EUR/USD traded after the G7 joint intervention in Sept 2000. The EUR/USD made a new low and the ECB followed up with more intervention a month later which finally carved out the bottom. Will USD/JPY behave the same way?

Posted in 2010 eurusd forecast, 2010 eurusd forecasts, Euro Intervention, eur/usd, euro No Comments »