According to the minutes from the April Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, here is the 5 step exit strategy that policymakers prefer at this time:
1) End QE2 in June
2) Stop reinvestment some time this yr
3) Remove the “extended period” language in Q4 or early 2012
4) Raise interest rates
5) Start selling assets in 2012/2013
Nearly all of [...]

Posted in 2009 us dollar forecast, 2011 dollar forecast, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve 1 Comment »

The Fed just released the April FOMC statement and I have highlighted all of the changes. As you can see, the only major change is their acknowledgment of inflationary pressures. Unfortunately they still believe the effects of higher prices will be transitory which means that rising prices are not enough to convince them [...]

Posted in Federal Reserve, forex blog 1 Comment »

I was on the Business News Network this afternoon talking about the Fed FOMC meeting and the outlook for the U.S. dollar, CAD, AUD and other pairs. Click on the image to access the video
Sorry for the Radio Silence lately but I have been working hard on my new presentations for Singapore - leaving [...]

Posted in Federal Reserve No Comments »

Rate hike expectations are always changing and its important to keep track of them because they reflect what investors are pricing in.
Here are the latest numbers and highlights (compared to last week)
Fed - One 25bp rate hike expected by Q1 2012 > Minor increase in implied policy changes
BoE - 50bp rate hike priced [...]

Posted in 2011 british pound forecast, 2011 cad forecast, 2011 euro forecast, Australian Dollar, ECB, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, aud/usd, australian dollar forecast, ecb rate hike, forex blog 1 Comment »

Compare the changes made to March FOMC statement with the Jan one.

FOMC Statement January 26, 2011
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending [...]

Posted in 2011 dollar forecast, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, forex blog No Comments »