The U.S. dollar may be rebounding this morning but I think the gains will be short-lived. August is a terrible month for USD/JPY - the currency pair has fallen TEN out of the last TWELVE Augusts. Although seasonality does not equal a certainty of USD/JPY weakness, it is worth noting that 83 percent [...]

Posted in 2010 dollar forecast, 2010 japanese yen forecast, Forex, dollar forecast, forex blog 5 Comments »

I was on Reuters TV earlier today talking about how the dollar could be losing its safe haven status and the implications of the change in dollar positioning from net long to net short for the first time since March.
Click on the image to access the video

Posted in Forex, dollar safe haven, forex blog 1 Comment »

What is the difference between the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate?
On Thursday February 18th, the Federal Reserve surprised the markets by raising the discount rate by 25bp to 0.75 percent, sending the U.S. dollar sharply higher against all of the major currencies. Although the Fed went out of their way to say [...]

Posted in Federal Reserve, Forex, eur/usd, forex blog 9 Comments »

I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia this evening talking about the implications of the Fed’s discount rate hike on the forex markets.

Posted in Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, Forex 1 Comment »

I was on Fox Business earlier this afternoon talking about what could turn the dollar around.
Watch the latest business video at FOXBusiness.com
Here is a chart showing how G7/G8 (which is now G20) finance ministers and central bankers meeting has coincided with major tops and bottoms in the EUR/USD. I’ll have more on that soon [...]

Posted in 2009 us dollar forecast, Forex, US Dollar, euro, forex blog, weak dollar earnings 14 Comments »