The EUR/USD has fallen close to 4 percent or 600 pips since the beginning of the year. Although fundamental factors are certainly in play, there are seasonal factors as well.
Back in December, I published article warning about the seasonal effect on the EUR/USD.
Looks like it is playing out as expected:
One of the [...]

Posted in Forex, Forex News, eurusd seasonality, forex blog, forex signals 3 Comments »

How Did the Euro Trade in 2008?

Exactly one year ago, the Euro was trading at approximately 1.47 against the US dollar, 5 percent higher than current levels. In 2008, this type of move is considered mild especially when compared to the Euro’s 20 percent rally against the British pound and New Zealand dollar and [...]

Posted in 2009 currency forecasts, 2009 eurusd forecasts, 2009 forex forecasts, Currency forecasts, ECB, Forex, Forex News, Forex Technicals, ecb rate cut, eur/usd, forex blog, forex signals 8 Comments »

2008 Price Action: It has been an exceptionally active year in the foreign exchange market as currency volatilities hit record highs. In the first half of the year, everyone was worried about how much further the dollar would fall but in the second half of the year the concern became how much further [...]

Posted in Bernanke, FOMC, Federal Reserve, Forex, Forex News, Forex Technicals, consumer confidence, consumer spending, dollar forecast, dollar rally, forex blog 5 Comments »

I have spoke often about the consequences of a strong currency. In the case of the US, the weak dollar in the first half of the year has helped to contribute to Q2 and for some Q3 corporate earnings as well. However I strongly believe that Q4 earnings will be very bad. [...]

Posted in Forex, Forex News, Forex Technicals, forex blog, retail sales 3 Comments »

It is the first trading day of what is typically the least liquid period in the financial markets. As a result, there was no consistent trading pattern in the US dollar today. The greenback weakened against the Euro but gained strength against the British pound and Japanese Yen. We still believe that the US [...]

Posted in ECB, Forex, Forex News, eur/usd, forex blog 2 Comments »