This morning’s stronger than expected ADP report sparked some optimism for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls release. Over the past 12 months, ADP has consistently underestimated NFPs which means that non-farm payrolls could be much stronger than expected. The current forecast calls for job growth of 105k. The following chart shows how ADP underestimated [...]
Entries Categorized as 'non-farm payrolls'
July 7, 2011
January 6, 2011
Barclay’s argues that if non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside, the Canadian dollar will be the best performer.
How does an investor position for such an upside surprise? The temptation is to be long the USD against a currency with a high sensitivity to US interest rates such as the JPY. However, with the [...]
January 6, 2011
The forecast for non-farm payrolls is 150k. The whisper number is 500k. Such a wide range of forecasts means that SOMEONE will be surprised. Expect tomorrow to be a crazy day. Here’s my scenario analysis for non-farm payrolls:
The 580k hyperbolic forecast has caused many foreign exchange traders to position for a very [...]
October 8, 2010
Living up to its reputation, the non-farm payrolls report triggered sharp volatility across the financial markets. The U.S. dollar dropped below 82 against the Japanese Yen while the EUR/USD climbed within 15 pips of 1.40 against the euro on the heels of the NFP release. According to the latest labor market report, American [...]
September 3, 2010
I published this report on FX360.com this morning (if you haven’t read it already)
The U.S. dollar skyrocketed after the stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report. Not only did the headline number surprise to the upside, but private sector job growth beat expectations with the July figures also revised sharply higher. This positive [...]