The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic data. An improvement in consumer confidence has failed to help the dollar while the weaker news has pretty much been baked into the markets.
Christmas and New Years week is a time when traders are more focused on seeing family than making [...]

Posted in Crude Oil Prices, Forex News, Oil, US Dollar, US Economy, consumer confidence, consumer spending, dollar earnings, dollar recession, forex blog, gas prices, oil dollar, weak dollar earnings 5 Comments »

The US dollar is tanking as jobless claims rise by the largest amount since November 1982, 26 years ago. As I have suspected, it is the 1980s all over again.
This confirms that the 533k drop in non-farm payrolls last month will not be the bottom in the labor market. When claims first [...]

Posted in EURJPY, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve, Forex News, Japanese Yen, US Dollar, US Economy, US Treasuries, beige book dollar, dollar recession, eur/usd, euro, forex blog, jobs, non-farm payrolls, oil dollar, recession, usd/jpy, zero interest rates No Comments »

There has been 3 recessions in the past 30 years. In each of those recessions, the dollar weakened in the first six months of the recession, then gained strength in the next six. Twelve months into the current recession, we see this pattern in the dollar repeated once again.
The more important question however is whether [...]

Posted in Forex News, Forex Technicals, US Dollar, dollar rally, dollar recession, forex blog, oil dollar, recession 7 Comments »

Despite false rallies in the currency market, I have stressed that there is no reason for the liquidation to be over. I warned that the currency and stock market rallies were a mirage rather than a bottom and now, the pessimistic tone of the FOMC minutes has forced another wave of liquidation.
Tuesday’s [...]

Posted in Bernanke, Carry Trades, FOMC Minutes, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Forex News, US Dollar, USD/CAD, consumer spending, eur/usd, forex blog, oil dollar, usd/jpy, weak dollar earnings 3 Comments »

Despite the turmoil in the US financial markets, foreign demand for US securities remain robust, particularly since the Treasury’s International Capital flow report was for September, the month that Lehman collapsed.
TIC Report Explains Dollar Rally
Demand was particularly strong for US Treasuries and equities but foreigners dumped corporate bonds on the fear of [...]

Posted in Carry Trades, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Forex, Forex News, US Dollar, dollar rally, eur/usd, euro, forex blog, oil dollar, paulson, paulson dollar No Comments »