I have written my own piece on How Oil Prices Impact the U.S. Dollar but Jens Nordvig of Nomura has an equally thorough take that is worth reading:
What does the spike in oil prices mean for the dollar?
Recent memories suggest that higher oil prices are bad news for the dollar. First, we have been [...]

Posted in 2011 dollar forecast, Federal Reserve, Oil, dollar rally, forex blog, oil dollar, oil record high 2 Comments »

Oil prices are on the rise and everyone is talking about the possibility of $100 oil. Right now, the rise in oil is accompanied by a rise in the U.S. dollar but will this relationship last? Taking a look back at the two prominent oil shocks of the past four decades (1973 and 1979) [...]

Posted in Oil, forex blog, oil dollar, oil record high 6 Comments »

The US dollar appears to be unfazed by this morning’s mixed economic data. An improvement in consumer confidence has failed to help the dollar while the weaker news has pretty much been baked into the markets.
Christmas and New Years week is a time when traders are more focused on seeing family than making [...]

Posted in Crude Oil Prices, Forex News, Oil, US Dollar, US Economy, consumer confidence, consumer spending, dollar earnings, dollar recession, forex blog, gas prices, oil dollar, weak dollar earnings 5 Comments »

The US dollar is tanking as jobless claims rise by the largest amount since November 1982, 26 years ago. As I have suspected, it is the 1980s all over again.
This confirms that the 533k drop in non-farm payrolls last month will not be the bottom in the labor market. When claims first [...]

Posted in EURJPY, Fed Rate Cut, Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve, Forex News, Japanese Yen, US Dollar, US Economy, US Treasuries, beige book dollar, dollar recession, eur/usd, euro, forex blog, jobs, non-farm payrolls, oil dollar, recession, usd/jpy, zero interest rates 1 Comment »

There has been 3 recessions in the past 30 years. In each of those recessions, the dollar weakened in the first six months of the recession, then gained strength in the next six. Twelve months into the current recession, we see this pattern in the dollar repeated once again.
The more important question however is whether [...]

Posted in Forex News, Forex Technicals, US Dollar, dollar rally, dollar recession, forex blog, oil dollar, recession 7 Comments »