Entries Categorized as 'recession'

December FOMC Preview: How a 50 or 75bp Rate Cut Will Impact the Dollar

Date December 15, 2008

Tuesday’s FOMC meeting will be remembered for decades to come as the Federal Reserve brings interest rates down to the lowest level this generation has ever seen. With 2 realistic options on the table and economist and traders divided on how much the Fed will cut interest rates, the only certain outcome is significant volatility […]

Dollar Tanks as Jobless Claims Signal 75bp Rate Cut from Fed

Date December 11, 2008

The US dollar is tanking as jobless claims rise by the largest amount since November 1982, 26 years ago. As I have suspected, it is the 1980s all over again. This confirms that the 533k drop in non-farm payrolls last month will not be the bottom in the labor market. When claims first hit 573k […]

How Does the US Dollar Perform in a Recession?

Date December 2, 2008

There has been 3 recessions in the past 30 years. In each of those recessions, the dollar weakened in the first six months of the recession, then gained strength in the next six. Twelve months into the current recession, we see this pattern in the dollar repeated once again. The more important question however is […]

How Long Do Recessions Last?

Date December 2, 2008

Now that US economy is officially in recession, the big question on everyone’s mind is, how long will it last? So far, the current recession is the fourth longest in the past 80 years and its on track to be as long as recession in the 1970s and 80s, which lasted for 16 months. However […]

Will the NBER Finally Acknowledge the Recession?

Date November 12, 2008

If Martin Feldstein, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research is right about the unemployment rate surpassing 8 percent, then we could expect consumer spending to slow further, pushing more retail chains into bankruptcy. The NBER is the organization that officially determines whether the US economy has fallen into a recession. Although Feldstein […]