Entries Categorized as 'retail sales'

Higher Retail Sales Fails to Help

Date February 12, 2009

Job losses are increasing, but that hasn’t stopped Americans from spending and unfortunately that pretty much sums up American culture. Retail sales increased 1 percent in the month of January despite a sharp increased in jobless claims (Instant Insight on Retail Sales). Consumers took advantage of sharp January discounts and the bankruptcy of Circuit City. […]

US Retail Sales Falls, Q4 GDP Will be Very Weak

Date January 14, 2009

For the 6th month in a row, US consumers have cut back spending. The December consumer spending data tells us that retailers had a very tough time this holiday shopping season. Consumers reduced their spending by 2.7 percent but if you take out year end deals in the auto sector, retail sales actually fell 3.1 […]

The Consequences of a Strong Dollar

Date December 23, 2008

I have spoke often about the consequences of a strong currency. In the case of the US, the weak dollar in the first half of the year has helped to contribute to Q2 and for some Q3 corporate earnings as well. However I strongly believe that Q4 earnings will be very bad. Partly because of […]

Retail Sales and PPI Still Stink

Date December 12, 2008

US retail sales and producer prices were basically in line with expectations but that does not undermine the fact that the data was very weak and confirms that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates by 75bp next week. USD/JPY hit a 13 year low last night after news that the automaker bailout plan […]

Impact of Retail Sales and Trade on Q4 GDP

Date December 11, 2008

The two biggest inputs into GDP are consumer spending and trade. Therefore the 2.8 percent decline in retail sales and the surprise widening of the trade deficit in the month of October suggests that GDP growth could take a big dive in the fourth quarter. Word on the street is that some economists are calling […]