How Far Could Oil Prices Fall?
July 9, 2008
By now, everyone should realize that oil prices are determining monetary policy. This is true for the US as well as other central banks around the world. Central bankers have been very worried about price pressures and we know that most of the pressure comes from oil.
Oil prices are impacting not only monetary policy, but also stocks and the US dollar. The rebound in oil prices today and geopolitical tensions are driving the US dollar lower. Iran reportedly test fired 9 missiles in the Persian Gulf and according to the Associated Press, the missiles could reach Israel, Turkey, the Arabian peninsula, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
These geopolitical tensions will probably ease as Iran’s test fires prove to be nothing than muscle-flexing. At that time, oil prices will continue to fall. Speculators are driving the move in oil prices and if the selling exacerbates, these traders will be quick to abandon their long positions. Yesterday’s drop in crude was the largest since 1991, but we could see another $10 drop before prices hit a bottom.
As indicated in the following oil chart, prices started to really take off in 2006. The move however has not been vertical. Between 2005 and 2008 there have been many corrections and on average, the corrections have ranged between 10 to 15 percent.
The second chart gives a closer look of the price action in oil over the past year. Even though crude hit an all time high of $145.85 on July 3rd, that was not before a series of retracements.
Therefore another $10 drop in oil prices is feasible even if oil remains within an overall uptrend and that would be bullish for the US dollar (Q3 Outlook for US Dollar).
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Posted in Crude Oil Prices
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July 16th, 2008 at 10:47 am
[...] wrote this post on How Far Could Oil Prices Fall? last week, which is quite applicable to today’s price [...]
October 31st, 2008 at 3:52 pm
You will see oil plumet to 48 dollars a barrel and stay there until about July of 2009, with a rollercoaster ride up and down from$53.00 to $43.00. The hardest hit will be Iran. $1.50 gasoline will be readily available throughout the United States. and remain for the most part throughout all of 09, 2010 should see a significant rise in other nations From late 09 leveling in 2010. 2010 will bring a resurgance of the dollars value as the worlds leader, greenbacks will be the currency of choice again.