June 30, 2011
Why has the rally in the EUR been so lackluster? Because there are a still
4 3 more hurdles to overcome before we can put the Greek debt crisis behind us.
The Greeks have jumped over 2 hoops on their own with one more expected to be cleared once the Greek implementation vote is completed this afternoon.
1. Win no Confidence Vote
2. Get Parliament to Approve Austerity Plan
3. Get Parliament to Approve Implementation Procedure
4. Get EU/IMF to Release Next Tranche of Aid
5. EU/IMF Needs to Come up With a Second Rescue Plan for Greece
6. Rating Agencies need to be convinced that the Rescue Plan does not constitute a default
The Greeks have lived up to their end of the bargain by passing the Austerity Package that the EU and IMF demanded and now the ball is in their court. When European Finance Ministers meet on July 3rd, we expect them approve the next bailout tranche, worth EUR12 billion. They will then start to discuss options to ensure continued financing for Greece. Thankfully, investors are not operating in a vacuum because the bond rollover plan proposed by France has received widespread approval and support by the markets. Getting rating agencies to feel the same way will be the main challenge but crafting the second bailout package will not be easy either because even if there is enough participation in the rollover, Greece will still be asked to find buyers for EUR50 billion worth of state owned assets.