Kathy Lien

CNBC Video: My Outlook for Euro

Kathy Lien — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:28:03 +0000

Here’s a clip from my CNBC Asia Guest Hosting slot last night. We talked about the EU Summit and my outlook plus levels for EUR

What EZ Bond Yields Imply About S&P Downgrades

Kathy Lien — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 17:19:14 +0000

Since Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings of 9 Eurozone countries, the euro has done nothing but rally. One of the main reasons why the EUR/USD has been so resilient is because the downgrades had very little impact on European bond yields. French and Spanish bond yields have increased but by less than a tenth of a percent while Italian bond yields decreased since the S&P announcement. The following table compares the 10 year bond yield and 5 year CDS spreads of key EZ nations today vs. before S&P’s announcement. Five year credit default spreads rose, representing an increase in risk premium but the uptick was nominal. The biggest consequence of sovereign downgrades are higher yields and borrowing costs but based upon 10 year bond yield spreads, troubled European nations have been spared from Armageddon for the time being.

CNBC Video: Whats in Store for Euro

Kathy Lien — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 13:15:47 +0000

Talking euro on CNBC Asia last night

What are Central Banks Expected to do in 2012?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 23:14:37 +0000

The New Year has begun and it is important to see what the market is pricing in for central banks this year. As you may know, central bank rate hike expectations change often but as of last week, most central banks are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged in the coming year but one is expected to ease aggressively. Find out who below!

Federal Reserve - No Changes in 2012

European Central Bank - Possible 25bp Cut before Year End

Bank of England - No Changes in 2012

Bank of Canada - No Changes in 2012

Reserve Bank of Australia - Aggressive Rate Cuts this Year, 25bp by March!

Reserve Bank of New Zealand - No Changes in 2012

And here are the details!

FOMC Voters 2012 Dove Hawk Scale

Kathy Lien — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 22:59:12 +0000

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee changes dramatically in 2012. Gone are Evans (the most dovish member of the FOMC), Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota (the Trio of hawks) and in comes Lacker, Pianalto, Lockhart and Williams. Three hawks and one dove will now be replaced with three doves and one hawk. We can only imagine what this means for monetary policy in the coming year. Every piece of good data will be looked at with skepticism and the central bank as a whole will be more introduce another round of quantitative easing than to normalize monetary policy.

Here is the updated FOMC Voters Dove Hawk Scale for 2012

Jeremy C. Stein and Jerome H. Powell have been nominated by President Obama to fill the 2 vacant seats on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors but they still need to be confirmed by the Senate who do not return to business until Jan 23rd.

Here’s where the current voters stand:

Openly Dovish
Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto

Moderately Dovish
NY Fed President William Dudley
Vice Chair Janet Yellen

Slight Lean towards Dovishness
Fed Board Member Daniel Tarullo
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
Fed Board Member Elizabeth Duke
San Francisco Fed President John Williams
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart

Neutral
Fed Board Member Sarah Raskin

Slightly Hawkish
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker

Here is the FOMC Rotation for the next few years:

Source for both charts is Fixedincomelive.com

Kathy is Getting Married - Returning Jan 9th

Kathy Lien — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 20:02:30 +0000

First I want to apologize for being MIA for the past few weeks. Didn’t realize wedding planning would be so tough! But - all is finally done and I am happy to say that I will be getting married on Dec 12th and will then be off for a nice long honeymoon. I will back in the office on Jan 9th and one of my New Year resolutions will be to blog more! I promise!!! In the meantime, I want to wish all of you a wonderful holiday and a happy New Year. See you in 2012!

On CNBC Talking USD, EUR and Favorite Trade

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 04:46:57 +0000

I was on CNBC this afternoon with Maria Bartiromo talking about the outlook for the USD, EUR and my favorite trade

CNBC - Talking Seasonality and Outlook for EUR

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 16:49:39 +0000

I was on CNBC Squawk on the Street with Carl, Melissa and Simon this morning talking about my outlook for the euro and seasonality. Here’s the clip:

Bloomberg Interview on Safe Haven Currencies

Kathy Lien — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 15:07:27 +0000

I was on Bloomberg Television on Wed afternoon talking about Safe Haven Currencies

Tables: US and EZ Economic Performance Since Last Recession

Kathy Lien — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 12:52:19 +0000

We have FOMC and ECB meetings in the next 24 hours. Here’s some info on how economic data has fared since the last meeting.

US: Not Doing So Bad

ECB: Nothing but Weakness, Skirting Recession