August: A Bad Month for USD/JPY
August 31, 2010
More than 3 weeks ago, I talked about how USD/JPY has a strong tendency to weaken in the month of August (see post: USD/JPY Falls 10 out of the Last 12 Augusts). The year 2010 was no different as USD/JPY ends the month down nearly 3 percent.
At that time, I said “Although seasonality does not equal a certainty of USD/JPY weakness, it is worth noting that 83 percent of time, USD/JPY has ended the month lower by an average of 2 percent. Considering that USD/JPY started the month at 86.46, a 2 percent move would put it below its November low of 84.83.” Not only did we reach that level, but USD/JPY fell to a low of 83.53 last week - seasonality has proven to be effective once again!
Here are the latest stats:
Posted in 2010 japanese yen forecast, forex blog, forex seasonality
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August 31st, 2010 at 9:12 pm
Interesting correlation, will have to look out for it next year.. Any other strong or weak months ahead?
September 1st, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Good article, and great way to see the value of the seasonality.
September 6th, 2010 at 11:34 am
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