Currency Forecasts for Q3

July 7, 2008

My team at DailyFX just published our third quarter currency market forecasts. Definitely worth a read:

EUR/USD (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- Oil is Determining Fed Policy
- Federal Reserve: A Third Quarter Rate Hike?
- When Will the US Consumer Buckle?
- Labor Market: String of Job Losses Set to Continue
- The US Dollar At or Near a Bottom
- Euro Bye Bye Boom
- ECB Full Speed Ahead
- Risk of Recession Ahead?
- North – South Decoupling Continues
- EURUSD to Remain Contained Within its Range

USD/JPY (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- Risk Appetite will Drive the Japanese Yen in the Second Half of 2008
- What Can we Expect out of Risk Appetite and the Carry Trade?
- Bank of Japan one of the few central banks not overly worried about inflation
- EURJPY Could Continue to Rise on Hawkish European Central Bank Rate Outlook (To be revised post-ECB)
- What to watch for in the Third Quarter for the Japanese Yen

GBP/USD (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- The Bank of England Weighs the Risks
- A Slowing Economy…
- A Feeble Financial Sector…
- Rocketing Price Pressures Have Pushed Inflation Well Above Target…
- What Will The Bank of England Do?
- A New High in EUR/GBP?

USD/CAD (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- Canadian Exports Will Continue to Suffer in 2008
- BOC Rate Cuts End Abruptly, Policy Following the US Fed
- Oil Will Cause USDCAD To Break Above The Current Range
- Canadian Dollar Trend Depends upon Oil vs. Growth

AUD/USD (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- Rates of Return
- Everything Depends On Risk
- Growth May Be A More Influential Anchor
- Australia Still Meeting A Global Demand
- Further Gains in the Aussie Will be a Struggle

NZD/USD (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- New Zealand‘s Economy is on the Brink of Recession
- The RBNZ Could Lower Interest Rates
- New Zealand dollar is Expected to Depreciate Further in the Second Half of 2008

USD/CHF (Link to Fundamental and Technical Outlook)
- Will the Swiss Franc Stumble, If The SNB Falls Behind The Curve?
- Which Way Will Risk Winds Blow?
- Inflation Saps Consumer Spending Despite Strong Labor Market
- Are Slowing Demand and Rising Costs Too Much For Swiss Manufacturers to Bear?
- SNB Keeps Rates Unchanged As They See Inflation Transitory
- EURCHF Range Bound
- SNB Holds to Key to the Swissie in Q3

Posted in Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Currency forecasts, Japanese Yen, New Zealand dollar, euro