Update on USDJPY and US Yields
August 4, 2010
Yields on short-term US Treasury debt have fallen to the lowest in history on mounting expectations of extra stimulus from the Federal Reserve. USD/JPY has been doing nothing but tracking yields which means that until yields bottom, USD/JPY will remain under pressure. I’ve been talking about this for weeks now - here’s an updated chart. If you want to forecast where USD/JPY is headed, just watch how yields respond to payrolls
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Posted in 2009 japanese yen, 2009 japanese yen forecast, forex blog, non-farm payrolls
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August 4th, 2010 at 8:59 am
Do you think that comments from Japanese officials would impact the pair at this stage.Verbal interventions ?
Thank You
August 4th, 2010 at 5:18 pm
[...] Update on USDJPY and US Yields | Kathy Lien [...]
August 5th, 2010 at 2:34 am
[...] Update on USDJPY and US Yields | Kathy Lien [...]
August 5th, 2010 at 11:19 am
[...] Update on USDJPY and US Yields | Kathy Lien [...]
August 5th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
Very interesting correlation. The Usd/Jpy has been a difficult one to correlate. The other yen crosses correlate vry well to the equity markets. But because of the jpy and the usd both being safe haven category, they dont contrast much vs each other when talking about risk. But you have brought up a very interesting correlation.. how does this hol up on the intraday charts? I see the daily has a very solid correlation..
August 6th, 2010 at 10:54 am
Hi.
I read many of your articles because of your broad fundamental perspective. But I don’t understand why more QE means lower treasury yields. One would expect cheaper money to result in at least higher expectations for inflation, which primarily is what drives bond prices. Isn’t it?
August 8th, 2010 at 6:24 am
Hi Lien
How do u create charts like that! I mean USDJPY and 2 Yr US ??
August 8th, 2010 at 11:54 am
I don’t think comments from just about any Japanese official will move the market. The market must have (by now) found out that as per Japan’s foreign exchange law, only the Japanese Finance Minister has the real power to order the Bank of Japan to intervene. The rest can talk but only Mr. Noda (or his boss, the Primer Minister.)
August 9th, 2010 at 5:13 am
This is an amazing observation. Thanks! Do you think US yield will continue to stay this low in the next 6 months?
August 11th, 2010 at 5:36 am
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THANK YOU.