Tables: US and EZ Economic Performance Since Last Recession

November 2, 2011

We have FOMC and ECB meetings in the next 24 hours. Here’s some info on how economic data has fared since the last meeting.

US: Not Doing So Bad

ECB: Nothing but Weakness, Skirting Recession

Posted in 2010 eurusd forecast, 2010 eurusd forecasts, ECB, Fed Rate Cut, Fed rate hike, Federal Reserve, ecb rate cut

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FOMC, ECB, RBA Meetings: What is Priced in?

October 31, 2011

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have monetary policy meetings scheduled this week and some investors expect these central banks to change monetary policy. Here’s what the market is pricing in according to interest rate futures. You can compare them with the Central Bank expectations back in September. What is interesting is that the market does not expect the ECB to cut interest rates this year even though many economists predict a 50bp cut in December.

FED - Nada for 2011 and 2012

ECB - 25bp rate cut by July (sharp upgrade from Sept when rate cut expected in Dec)

BOE - Nada for 2011 and 2012 but slight shift to dovish bias

BOC - Rate Cuts now expected in 2012, down from rate hike by April

RBA - 25bp Rate cut by Dec - upgrade from 100bp by year end

RBNZ - No Major Changes, Rate Hike Expected July 2012

And here are the details: